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INSIGHT

What Our Firm Learned from 2021 IPO Markets

2021 was a hectic year for investors, startup founders, and financial intermediaries. Here are three important lessons our team (and many other investors) learned in 2021. 

1. Don’t Overpay

In 2021, software M&A and growth capital investments all increased significantly. Growth capital invested in the U.S. totaled $78.3 billion in 2021, more than double compared to 2020. While this meant higher deal activity and more investment in software, it also meant much higher valuations for companies in the sector driven by demand and low interest rates. Throughout the year, numerous investors paid a premium for fast-growing startups that may have been quality companies but did not deserve the price tag. 

As a result, these investors suffered more than they gained from the boom, and their funds underperformed. What we saw reminded us of a similar phenomenon that happened in the tech markets more than 20 years ago. In March of 2000, when the NASDAQ reached a price of $5,048 and valuations for companies like Pets.com were reaching record peaks, many venture capitalists were liberal with their investments and pumped money into companies that ended with “.com.” Less than two years later, many top tech companies had halved in value, falling back to more realistic valuations.  

2. Raising at a High Valuation is Worse for All Stakeholders

At first glance, raising at a high valuation seems like a great deal for everyone besides the investor. However, our team found that oftentimes, founders who raise at a high valuation have a much harder time raising more capital in the future. Investors are more wary of the company’s fundamental value and fear overpaying. Focusing on doing less with more (the “day one” mentality popularized by Bezos) has shown to catalyze strong outcomes better than the approach of writing large checks hoping companies grow into the investment size. It prevents further dilution on the cap table and keeps existing investors in a more stable position. In general, it is better to ensure that all stakeholders benefit from a transaction, especially if raising more capital in the future is an important factor in growing the business. 

3. Have a Strong Investment Thesis

Lessons from periods like the dot-com bubble and the 2020-2021 IPO surge highlight the importance of a robust investment thesis. While tempting, raising capital at high valuations can backfire, as seen with founders struggling to secure future funding and dilution concerns for existing investors. Anchoring decisions on solid fundamentals, market potential, and sustainable growth mitigates risks. The dot-com bubble's burst revealed the dangers of hype-driven investments, while the IPO surge showed challenges post-public offering. A well-defined investment thesis ensures prudent investor attraction and positions companies for enduring success amidst market volatility.

To understand these concepts and the danger involved, let's take a look at Olive AI, a startup that developed healthcare automation solutions for hospitals and doctor’s offices. Olive AI's quick ascent and subsequent collapse stand as an important reminder of the pitfalls that can accompany sky-high valuations based primarily on hype and the erroneous idea that actual core product market fit can be replaced by unlimited VC funding. Once known as an impressive digital health unicorn, Olive's trajectory shifted dramatically as it struggled with the consequences of its own success and the winding down of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite initial promise and a valuation of $4 billion, Olive ultimately succumbed to the weight of its inflated expectations, announcing its shutdown amidst a flurry of financial struggles and strategic missteps.

 

The company's demise can be attributed to a combination of factors, ranging from a lack of focus and toxic internal culture to the unchecked influx of venture capital funds. Olive's rapid expansion and attempts to diversify its offerings led to a loss of sight of its core products and customers, exacerbating its financial woes. As the digital health funding boom of 2021 tapered off, Olive found itself unable to sustain its growth trajectory, culminating in layoffs and divestitures. The saga of Olive AI serves as a cautionary tale for the broader startup ecosystem, underscoring the dangers of prioritizing hype over substance and the perils of chasing lofty valuations without a solid foundation of sustainable growth.

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