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INSIGHT

What Artificial Intelligence Means for Markets

AI’s Market Impact

While interest in artificial intelligence and machine learning sparked as early as the 1950s, its true effect on markets sparked in the 1990s and early 2000s. More recently, however,  the surge in the development of artificial intelligence in the last few years is affecting markets like nothing seen before. Venture capital, for example, is one of the markets most profoundly impacted, as AI has created an extremely exciting new environment in the field. David Sacks, partner at Craft Ventures, referred to the current AI boom as “the early stages of a huge new wave” and noted that he sees the AI surge as fuel for creating dozens of new unicorns in AI infrastructure, vector databases, AI copilots, and more. Another key point, supported by Sacks, pertains to SaaS software products going from good to great. There are a few reasons for this enhancement in the SaaS field, but a major factor is the incorporation of cloud-based software tools like APIs (application programming interfaces). This integration of APIs improves the functionality of many SaaS companies by allowing the software to access data from a plethora of independent sources. AI has also had an intense impact on the venture capital industry regarding how much funding is needed. As Chamath Palihapitiya and other venture capitalists have noted, the use of artificial intelligence and auto-generative pre-training transformers (GPTs) has caused the amount of capital needed for investment to plummet as a three-person company can now do the work of an identical company of 20–30 employees just five years ago. What’s the takeaway? AI and auto GPTs have set a new standard for what it means for a company to be efficient, and in doing so, the venture capital market is forced to adapt.

Global AI Funding Surge

Specifically, according to the OECD’s most recent compilation, global venture capital funding that went into AI in 2020 reached upwards of 21%. Compared to the 4% share that it owned in 2012, the optimism surrounding artificial intelligence has become apparent across investors, with the 2020 percentage equaling a total funding of around $75 billion. US-based startups dominated the majority of funding, attaining 57%, with countries such as China, the EU, and the UK making up the remainder. Additionally, since 2022, the VC firms with the most abundant investments in the space are Plug and Play, Techstars, and YCombinator, totaling deals of 281, 270, and 264, respectively. 

Top AI Investment Sectors

Regarding the specific sub-sectors that are invested in, generative AI has been receiving an increasing amount of funding since the start of OpenAI in 2023. The ability to create synthetic content, whether it is through ChatGPT or Sora, demonstrates the potential that this technology has, as these are the early iterations of the platforms. With the garnered interest in these platforms, it has caused mass amounts of money to flow into semiconductor companies such as NVDA, SMCI, and AMD, leading to their tremendous equity growth since the beginning of 2024, as SMCI has risen nearly 300% YTD. These companies, along with startups in the generative AI space, will likely continue to grow as founders and investors further explore the space.  Furthermore, healthcare is another field that is significantly affected by the excitement in artificial intelligence. This stems from the efficient data systems and predictive analytics that stem from the technology. For example, Mayo Clinic, a healthcare giant, recently established a partnership with Google to develop an AI model to implement into their systems. This would allow them to access patient history in a streamlined manner as well as run predictive exams given a patient's data. Both ends benefit, as the quality of care improves as well as the healthcare professional’s ability to perform their tasks. Lastly, agriculture technology is another sector that has been positively impacted by the AI stimulus. The ability to forecast weather conditions allow farmers to better prepare for harvests as well as providing more information on how pricing may change in the future as demand will either swell or thin out. It overall brings more guarantees to their daily lives which they can use to adjust accordingly to properly prepare for the future. 

AI Concerns in VC

Despite the rapid increase in venture capital investment in AI over recent years, concerns about the technology's efficacy and impact persist. While AI has shown tremendous potential across various industries, there remains skepticism about its ability to deliver meaningful value. Despite significant advancement and funding, AI technologies still face limitations and challenges, such as robustness, scalability, and sustainable growth. Moreover, ethical considerations surrounding AI, such as data privacy, bias, and accountability, continue to raise significant concerns among policymakers, businesses, and the general public. This in hand with the lack of transparency and interpretability in AI algorithms further fuels apprehension about their reliability and fairness. Further, the regulatory landscape surrounding AI is still evolving, with many unanswered questions about governance, liability, and oversight. These factors have led the hype surrounding AI to create inflated expectations, resulting in disillusionment when reality fails to meet these lofty projections. As a result, investors, notably in the growth equity sector with more explicit criteria, are not as quick to invest in a company solely because they have an AI component; they must still hit desired financial criteria as well. This underscores the importance of demonstrating real-world value and sustainable business models alongside innovative AI technology.

AI in Due Diligence

Further, AI has recently begun to play a crucial role in the due diligence process of investors by streamlining and enhancing various aspects of the valuation and decision-making process, with firms like Tribe Capital relying on AI algorithms to efficiently analyze vast amounts of data, including financial statements, market trends, and industry reports, to identify patterns, anomalies, and potential opportunities. Moreover, AI algorithms assess the risk associated with prospective investments by analyzing historical data, market volatility, regulatory compliance, and other relevant factors. Furthermore, AI-driven automation tools are able to streamline and accelerate the due diligence process by automating repetitive tasks such as document review, contract analysis, and background checks. This automation frees up time for investors to focus on higher-level analysis and decision-making tasks, improving efficiency and productivity. We expect the usage of AI in the due diligence process to expand further as advancements in machine learning algorithms and natural language processing capabilities continue to improve, enabling more sophisticated analysis and automation of tasks.

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