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INSIGHT

Headwinds in GP Fundraises

It’s no secret that founders were not the only ones struggling to raise capital in the past couple of years. In fact, one could argue that funds had the worse end of the stock. Over and over again, our team saw targeted fund sizes being slashed, and many first time funds abandon their efforts altogether.

Consolidation

The slowdown in the IPO and M&A market has heavily impacted the liquidity events that venture and growth funds rely on to realize returns on their investments. Without these exit opportunities, funds struggle to demonstrate successful outcomes, in turn making it harder to attract new investments from LPs. Although this is a short-term market occurrence we can expect for the next 1-3 years, a less active IPO and M&A market is often perceived as an indicator of broader market volatility and uncertainty for LPs. This perception increases the risk profile of investing in venture and growth, causing LPs to be more cautious and selective about where they commit their funds.
 
This exit delay can extend the time it takes for venture funds to return capital to their LPs. This not only reflects itself in the funds’ IRR, but also ties up LPs' capital for longer periods, potentially making VC less attractive compared to other investment opportunities with quicker liquidity options.
 
Well-established venture firms with strong brand recognition often have a track record of successful investments and exits. In times of market uncertainty like we are experiencing currently in 2024, LPs tend to gravitate towards these types of funds, believing they have better access to high-quality deals and more experience navigating through economic downturns. Due to this, we are seeing a significant decrease in the ability of first and second time fund managers to raise capital.

The Denominator Effect

The Denominator Effect, a phenomenon where a sharp decline in the value of public market investments causes the relative value of private market holdings to increase, has placed GPs in a challenging position. As LPs find their allocations in private markets inadvertently inflated, their capacity and willingness to commit new capital to GP-managed funds decrease. This situation is compounded by the 2022 economic stagnation, making LPs more risk-averse and inclined to invest with established fund managers, further marginalizing emerging GPs. 
 
The fundraising landscape has been further complicated by an economic stagnation in 2022, characterized by reduced investor enthusiasm for new commitments, especially to funds managed by first-time GPs. Investors' heightened caution, influenced by global economic uncertainties, has led to a preference for the perceived safety of fund managers with proven track records. This cautious investor behavior has intensified the difficulties for GPs, particularly those without extensive historical performance data, to secure funding. 
 
While these factors pose significant challenges, they also prompt GPs to adapt their strategies to navigate the fundraising environment successfully. This includes enhancing communication with LPs about the strategic value and potential returns of their funds, leveraging technology and data to identify and engage with potential investors, and demonstrating flexibility in fund terms and conditions to accommodate LP concerns.

Predictions for 2024

Anticipating a similarly rough 2024, fund managers are looking to take a proactive approach to raising despite pessimistic predictions. In 2024, LPs will likely again exhibit heightened caution and prefer to err on the side of established fund managers, forcing emerging GPs to try out other strategies that pivot away from institutional investors.
 
One avenue that can be explored is the untapped potential of individual investors who qualify for investing in alternative assets who, historically, only have a small percentage of their wealth in private equity funds compared to institutional clients. Recent years have seen discourse between individuals and 
 
GPs, where GPs eye a resurgence of growth driven by unearthing global private wealth, and their targets consider the returns and diversification alternative investments can offer. The challenge is, however, to entice individual investors who value liquidity to participate in buyout-style private equity investments with a longer time frame. GPs will have to get creative in their pursuit of individual investors, utilizing investment funds specifically made for individuals such as tokenized funds that aim to enhance market liquidity.
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Despite an uneasy optimism, there is still a lot of work to be done before fundraising can bounce back to former heights, and the pathway for emerging managers still looks to be as narrow and intimidating as before.

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