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INSIGHT

2024 Outlook for IPO Markets

Following favorable pandemic-related fiscal and monetary policy, the IPO market boomed for an array of reasons. As central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, strove to stimulate post-pandemic economic recovery, interest rates were lowered to record lows. Borrowing became cheaper for businesses as the cost of capital fell, incentivizing companies to go public and raise capital. Global economic recovery and a backlog of IPOs further catalyzed the market — companies who were set to go public during 2020 delayed their IPOs and instead chose to go public in 2021, when investor confidence regarding business expansion and the overall market was high. 

2022 marked a stark contrast from the previous year in regard to the IPO market. The market saw the number of U.S. IPOs fall from 951 in 2021 to 113 in 2022. As inflation reached highs, central banks tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates in early 2022. Aside from the direct impact of high interest rates, investors were also wary of deploying capital — with higher rates, higher inflation, and a gloomy economic outlook, investor demand lowered, which consequently deterred companies from going public in an environment where it didn’t look like they would secure much capital from the public. 2023 was an interesting year that saw an even lower number of U.S. IPOs (62), as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at short-term highs, which drove this reduction in IPOs, as well as a broader slowdown in capital markets activity. 

Impact of an Election Year

Historically, election years have dampened IPO activity during the weeks — or occasionally, even months — leading up to the election. Uncertainty around politics adds a new element of risk for companies seeking to go public, leading many businesses to prefer issuing stock either considerably before an election or after it has already passed. In fact, activity in November of election years is particularly muted, with an average of 20 compared to 30 in non-election years. We can thus expect IPO activity to be somewhat muted during 2H24 and coming quarters to be particularly important for IPOs this year. Given that this year's election is shaping up to be a rematch between incumbent Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump, it could be a particularly contentious fight. Political unrest may be a more salient factor than usual given the lack of enthusiasm for both candidates, with less than 50% of Republicans enthusiastic about Trump and less than 25% of Democrats enthusiastic about Biden. The political base is also becoming increasingly fragmented, creating a situation where either candidate's success will disappoint the majority of Americans. As a result, the IPO window may effectively shut down even earlier than usual this election year, as companies will seek to avoid this negative sentiment and uncertainty. In fact, some analysts have predicted that IPO activity will slow significantly as early as August this year.

Recent IPOs

The performance of companies that recently went public this year provides businesses with insight on the current state of investor confidence and willingness to participate in IPOs. There have been 33 IPOs already, and the average return on these company's shares has been around -6%. About half of these companies currently trade above their IPO price, and among these companies, the average return is 28%. Appetite for IPOs does not seem to be particularly strong or weak based on these recent statistics; in other words, current investor sentiment does not offer reasons for a company to particularly rush the process of going public nor does it provide reasons to delay.

Upcoming IPOs

Looking at the short-term IPO market, two noteworthy IPOs are likely to set the precedent for overall sentiment in the coming months: Reddit (social media platform) and Galderma (the Swiss parent company behind skincare brands like Cetaphil). Reddit is set for trading starting on March 21 with an expected IPO price between $31 and $34, bringing its valuation to $6.5 billion which is more palatable to investors than previous private market valuations that had the company listing with a value over $10 billion. Galderma on the other hand will provide insight into sentiment surrounding international IPOs as it will be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange with the company aiming to raise $2.3 billion, most of which would be used to pay down debt. Only time will tell how successful these IPOs are, however, should they be successful, we may see a reinvigoration of the IPO market as it would assuage many of the economic concerns that have characterized the market in recent months. 

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